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18-12-2013
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This is a general consensus on where the races are in each category at this time.

PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave - Lock! Probably going to win
2. American Hustle - Lock
3. Gravity - Lock
4. Captain Phillips - the type of well-made studio drama that usually does well
5. Her - the critics' darling of the year, plus Jonze is no stranger to Academy either
6. Nebraska - Payne has had a great track record
7. The Wolf of Wall Street - somewhat divisive, but still acclaimed and AMPAS love Scorsese
8. Inside Llewyn Davis - AMPAS love the Coens
-----
9. The Butler/Philomena - one of Weinstein's ponies should make it. The first has the star power and the box office, the latter has the reviews and more precursor support.
10. Saving Mr. Banks/Dallas Buyers Club - the first one had great hype out of Toronto but thus far has failed to really register. The second one has two acclaimed performances and has been surging as of late.
11. Blue Jasmine/Rush - two critically acclaimed earlier releases, from previously embraced directors, both have underperformed thus far.

DIRECTOR
1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave - Lock. Although, last year's snubs of Affleck and Bigelow make me hesitant to use that it. Directing branch can be very unpredictable.
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity - see above
3. David O. Russell - will he really go three for three? Seems very likely right now.
4. Paul Greengrass - looking good right now, but it's JUST the type of contender that often gets snubbed
5. Spike Jonze, Her - the type of critically acclaimed, auteur nomination that would've been the 'lone director' nomination in the past
6. Alexander Payne, Nebraska - AMPAS has responded really well to his previous efforts and with a GG nomination, he could take out Greengrass or Payne
7. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street - a threat because he's Martin Scorsese

ACTOR
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave - Lock. Will probably win too.
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club - very solid
3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips - with Saving Mr. Banks failing to bring him much attention, it somehow helps his chances here
4. Bruce Dern, Nebraska - seems solid, but if Paul Giamatti's and John Hawke's snubs showed us, it's that these acclaimed indie performances are vulnerable. Dern has a long history in the biz, so that helps.
5. Robert Redford - SAG snub hurts, but he's still stronger than the next contender.
6. Christian Bale, American Hustle - BFCA snub may be a fluke, or it may be a sign that he has more support than initially thought
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wold of Wall Street - 'best of career' reviews help, but will be hard to break through the 'consensus five'
8. Forest Whitaker, The Butler - oh gosh, sometimes those random SAG nominations can translate into Oscar nominations

ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine - LOCK! Can't imagine how she doesn't win.
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity - Safe.
3. Judi Dench, Philomena - somewhat vulnerable, but should be in
4/5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks - the movie needs to be a box office hit.
4/5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County - if Amy was a bit stronger, I think Meryl would be out. Alas, Amy hasn't been able to make much of a dent among precursors.
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle - past precursor stats are stacked against her
7. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color - BAFTA nod is a must, but even with that, it's an uphill battle
8. Brie Larson, Short Term 12 - if her movie were seen, she'd be in with a shot. Alas, her movie is not being seen.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club - Lock! Will probably win.
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave - Safe
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips - should be in
4. Daniel Bruhl, Rush - seemed out of it just a couple weeks ago, but strong showing with SAG, GG and BFCA suggest he should be in
5/6. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle - the opposite of above. Seemed like a lock at the beginning of the season, but really underperformed with precursors.
5/6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said - the sentiment might just be the final push he needs.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave - Lock.
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle - Lock
3. June Squibb, Nebraska - should be in.
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County - is the Academy willing to embrace her again. How will the larger public react to the movie?
5. Oprah Winfrey, The Butler - will probably be in, but the performance is seen as mostly just adequate.
6. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine - if the movie is a hit with AMPAS, she could ride the wave.

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18-12-2013
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This is for MyNameIs (in case you've not seen it)

http://www.indiewire.com/awards-spot...3/brie-larson/

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18-12-2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Not Plain Jane View Post
London Film Critics Circle awards - full list in link:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/...-nominations/2

YAY! Finally "Frances Ha" for best feature and Greta Gerwig in best actress category. I guess it took people 'across the pond' to recognize how special this film is. It's much like an "Annie Hall" of today, but even more interesting since it showcases platonic friendship between women in a "romantic" way with huge nods to the French new-wave...
Happy for Frances Ha getting any sort of recognition. One of the best of the year. And it played very well in the arthouse cinema I saw it in. Also everyone I've recommended it to really liked it. Unfortunately I think it will go under the radar of most Oscar voters unless a few more critics groups pick up on it.

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05-01-2014
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I really don't get all the hype around Adele Exarchopoulos. Sure her acting was fine in Blue is the Warmest Color. But that's it. From the way I see, she didn't really transform herself into someone completely different the same way Lea Seydoux did. If someone deserved to be getting all the praise for this movie, it should be Lea. She was just fascinating and nailed it as a lesbian. She is the stronger one, so intense, much more complex and mature. I have to say she looks so different from everything I've seen her in and from the pictures too! It's her best role yet. What Adele did was to be herself with a high degree of charm. I don't care if she is going to be nominated or not. My favorite would be Cate Blanchett. Just superb acting, full of rich details. She's funny, wicked, greedy and someone we can still like despite all her issues. Great characterization and Blue Jasmine is my favorite film of the past year!


Last edited by TanyaKiller; 05-01-2014 at 03:35 PM.
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06-01-2014
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^While I thought they were both wonderful, I can totally understand why Adele is getting more attention. Her role was more showy and expressive, while Lea's was more internal and understated. I won't try to argue which one is more challenging, but I did respond to Adele more, probably in part because of the nature of her role. Plus, I thought Adele was just so raw and vulnerable, yet never really going over the top or hammy.

I do agree with your second part, Cate Blanchett gave the best performance this year. It was iconic.

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06-01-2014
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I've been doing my best over the Xmas break to watch as many "Oscar" films as possible.

I've now seen all of the Best Actress options. I agree with Cate and Sandra being locks. Judi is AMAZING as always so she to me is a lock also. Emma really fantastic in SMB so I would take her over Meryl. Then my last spot I have to give to Amy. Meryl was great but at times it really was over top. I don't think I can agree its an award winning performance. Amy really carried AH so she should be there.

Wolf of Wall Street was fantastic. I'm not understanding people's hate for it. Of course you should hate the characters. They are terrible people but it's a film which is so well done. The acting is great and I'm not a huge Leo/Johan fan but if they are nominated then they deserve it. It has to get a Best Picture nom.

Philomena is a beautiful movie. I highly recommend it to everyone. If Judi won over Cate I would not be upset. She may even get the BAFTA.

American Hustle wasn't as good as what I thought it would be but I still enjoyed it. All of the cast were good especially Amy. Her outfits were gorgeous but I was seriously wondering if her boob was going to pop out. As always I hope David O walks away with nothing cause he is scum.

August: Osage County was good. All the actors were on form but it's not amazing. I wouldn't really rave about it. I'd tell people to go see WoWS instead.

I still haven't got the courage to watch 12 Years a Slave yet. I know I have too but just know it's going to be really emotional and I will cry. I've got this, Dallas Byers Club, The Butler and Rush to watch before Sunday.

If Her doesn't leak soon or be released at the cinema I am going to go mental. I want to see it soooooooooo bad. Same with Inside Llewyn Davis.

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06-01-2014
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^12 Years a Slave is hard to watch at times but honestly so, so important. It's like one of those movies you almost don't want to watch because you know it'll make you emotional but at the same time you absolutely must watch. But my personal feelings is that it is the films that are the most raw and realistic that are absolutely vital to see. And especially with a topic such as slavery, its not something that we Americans are comfortable talking about but it is essential that we do. So anyways, I guess my point is, you will need a packet of tissues while watching but afterwards it will be so worth it, I am still in awe of that whole cast and of Steve McQueen, they have created a masterful film and told a story that absolutely needed to be told.

As for myself, I'm kinda failing miserably on catching up with seeing nominated films, there are so many I need to see that I haven't yet. I'm going to try and get to theater this week to see at least one. Sometimes I wish I could rent a theater screen and have back to back showings of films, just so I could see them all!

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06-01-2014
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my predictions:

PICTURE
12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Saving Mr. Banks, Dallas Buyer's Club, Her, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis


DIRECTOR
McQueen, Cuaron, Russell, Coens, Payne


ACTOR
McConaughey, Ejiofor, Hanks, Dern, Whitaker


ACTRESS
Blanchett, Bullock, Thompson, Streep, Larson


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, Gandolfini, Forte


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lawrence, Nyong'o, Squibb, Roberts, Winfrey

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07-01-2014
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DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

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07-01-2014
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Also, because I don't think they were posted before, two other biggies that were announced last week

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
August: Osage County
Before Sunset
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
The Wolf of Wall Street

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08-01-2014
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BAFTA NOMINATIONS -

BEST FILM
12 YEARS A SLAVE Anthony Katagas, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen
AMERICAN HUSTLE Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison, Jonathan Gordon
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman
PHILOMENA Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan, Tracey Seaward

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman, Jonás Cuarón
MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM Justin Chadwick, Anant Singh, David M. Thompson, William Nicholson
PHILOMENA Stephen Frears, Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan, Tracey Seaward, Jeff Pope
RUSH Ron Howard, Andrew Eaton, Peter Morgan
SAVING MR. BANKS John Lee Hancock, Alison Owen, Ian Collie, Philip Steuer, Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith
THE SELFISH GIANT: Clio Barnard, Tracy O’Riordan

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

COLIN CARBERRY (Writer), GLENN PATTERSON (Writer) Good Vibrations
KELLY MARCEL (Writer) Saving Mr. Banks
KIERAN EVANS (Director/Writer) Kelly + Victor
PAUL WRIGHT (Director/Writer), POLLY STOKES (Producer) For Those in Peril
SCOTT GRAHAM (Director/Writer) Shell

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

THE ACT OF KILLING Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOUR Abdellatif Kechiche, Brahim Chioua, Vincent Maraval
THE GREAT BEAUTY Paolo Sorrentino, Nicola Giuliano, Francesca Cima
METRO MANILA Sean Ellis, Mathilde Charpentier
WADJDA Haifaa Al-Mansour, Gerhard Meixner, Roman Paul

DOCUMENTARY

THE ACT OF KILLING Joshua Oppenheimer
THE ARMSTRONG LIE Alex Gibney
BLACKFISH Gabriela Cowperthwaite
TIM’S VERMEER Teller, Penn Jillette, Farley Ziegler
WE STEAL SECRETS: THE STORY OF WIKILEAKS Alex Gibney

ANIMATED FILM

DESPICABLE ME 2 Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin
FROZEN Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee
MONSTERS UNIVERSITY Dan Scanlon

DIRECTOR

12 YEARS A SLAVE Steve McQueen
AMERICAN HUSTLE David O. Russell
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Paul Greengrass
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Martin Scorsese

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

AMERICAN HUSTLE Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell
BLUE JASMINE Woody Allen
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, Jonás Cuarón
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
NEBRASKA Bob Nelson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 YEARS A SLAVE John Ridley
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Richard LaGravenese
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Billy Ray
PHILOMENA Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Terence Winter

LEADING ACTOR

BRUCE DERN Nebraska
CHIWETEL EJIOFOR 12 Years a Slave
CHRISTIAN BALE American Hustle
LEONARDO DICAPRIO The Wolf of Wall Street
TOM HANKS Captain Phillips

LEADING ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS American Hustle
CATE BLANCHETT Blue Jasmine
EMMA THOMPSON Saving Mr. Banks
JUDI DENCH Philomena
SANDRA BULLOCK Gravity

SUPPORTING ACTOR

BARKHAD ABDI Captain Phillips
BRADLEY COOPER American Hustle
DANIEL BRÜHL Rush
MATT DAMON Behind the Candelabra
MICHAEL FASSBENDER 12 Years a Slave

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

JENNIFER LAWRENCE American Hustle
JULIA ROBERTS August: Osage County
LUPITA NYONG’O 12 Years a Slave
OPRAH WINFREY The Butler
SALLY HAWKINS Blue Jasmine

ORIGINAL MUSIC

12 YEARS A SLAVE Hans Zimmer
THE BOOK THIEF John Williams
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Henry Jackman
GRAVITY Steven Price
SAVING MR. BANKS Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY

12 YEARS A SLAVE Sean Bobbitt
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Barry Ackroyd
GRAVITY Emmanuel Lubezki
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Bruno Delbonnel
NEBRASKA Phedon Papamichael

EDITING

12 YEARS A SLAVE Joe Walker
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Christopher Rouse
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger
RUSH Dan Hanley, Mike Hill
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Thelma Schoonmaker

PRODUCTION DESIGN

12 YEARS A SLAVE Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker
AMERICAN HUSTLE Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Howard Cummings
GRAVITY Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woodlard
THE GREAT GATSBY Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN

AMERICAN HUSTLE Michael Wilkinson
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Ellen Mirojnick
THE GREAT GATSBY Catherine Martin
THE INVISIBLE WOMAN Michael O’Connor
SAVING MR. BANKS Daniel Orlandi

MAKE UP & HAIR

AMERICAN HUSTLE Evelyne Noraz, Lori McCoy-Bell
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Kate Biscoe, Marie Larkin
THE BUTLER Debra Denson, Beverly Jo Pryor, Candace Neal
THE GREAT GATSBY Maurizio Silvi, Kerry Warn
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater

SOUND

ALL IS LOST Richard Hymns, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Micah Bloomberg, Gillian Arthur
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro, Oliver Tarney
GRAVITY Glenn Freemantle, Skip Lievsay, Christopher Benstead, Niv Adiri, Chris Munro
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff
RUSH Danny Hambrook, Martin Steyer, Stefan Korte, Markus Stemler, Frank Kruse

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

GRAVITY Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Nikki Penny
THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds
IRON MAN 3 Bryan Grill, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Dan Sudick
PACIFIC RIM Hal Hickel, John Knoll, Lindy De Quattro, Nigel Sumner
STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton, Patrick Tubach, Roger Guyett

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

EVERYTHING I CAN SEE FROM HERE Bjorn-Erik Aschim, Friederike Nicolaus, Sam Taylor
I AM TOM MOODY Ainslie Henderson
SLEEPING WITH THE FISHES James Walker, Sarah Woolner, Yousif Al-Khalifa

BRITISH SHORT FILM

ISLAND QUEEN Ben Mallaby, Nat Luurtsema
KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES Megan Rubens, Michael Pearce, Selina Lim
ORBIT EVER AFTER Chee-Lan Chan, Jamie Stone, Len Rowles
ROOM 8 James W. Griffiths, Sophie Venner
SEA VIEW Anna Duffield, Jane Linfoot

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD

DANE DEHAAN
GEORGE MACKAY
LUPITA NYONG’O
WILL POULTER
LÉA SEYDOUX

The BAFTAs will take place on Sunday 16 February 2014.

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08-01-2014
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Yep, that was the last piece of the puzzle. I'll post my final predictions sometime this weekend. Most main categories have quite a fight for the last spot.

Actor: Redford, Bale and DiCaprio
Actress: Streep, Adams and Thompson fighting for two spots
S.Acress: Roberts, Winfrey and Hawkins fighting for two spots

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08-01-2014
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I think it's Streep v Adams for the last spot. Amy was so charisma less in American Hustle so I would personally disagree with her getting nominated. That being said I haven't seen August Osage County so Meryl might be even worse. Although after her exceptional speech at the NBR last night, I think Meryl may have secured a nomination. I think having a line up of Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep and Thompson would be refreshing considering that none of them are that thirsty for an Oscar because they have one already. I know Emma is going above and beyond but that is just her personality and how she's always been.

Anyway, I have to say BAFTA snubbing Filth is the most surprising thing as it shows that it has bought into its own hype as an Oscar precursor. I can't think of many actors who have got better buzz for a film than James Mcavoy this year and Filth as a whole got incredible reviews. Far better reviews than most of the films nominated for Best British Film.

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08-01-2014
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Surprised to see no bafta nominations for Dallas Buyers Club.

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08-01-2014
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pixiedust1603 View Post
Anyway, I have to say BAFTA snubbing Filth is the most surprising thing as it shows that it has bought into its own hype as an Oscar precursor. I can't think of many actors who have got better buzz for a film than James Mcavoy this year and Filth as a whole got incredible reviews. Far better reviews than most of the films nominated for Best British Film.
That was really the most disappointing thing about today's nominations. I loved BAFTA's random cookiness. Now it's all blurring together.

There are 13 performances this year that were all nominated by BAFTA, SAG, Globes and BFCA. Probably all 13 will end up with an Oscar nomination too. Seven additional performances just missed one out of the four. Compare that to say 2003 where only 6 performances were nominated for all four awards. These award bodies are becoming duller and duller.

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