All About Coronavirus/COVID-19
- Thread starter Benn98
- Start date
Benn98
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2014
- Messages
- 42,531
- Reaction score
- 20,512
UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.
The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”
The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.
It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.
“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.
“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.
The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.
The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.
However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.
The document also states that:
If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.
Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.
That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.
There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.
The Guardian
Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.
The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”
The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.
It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.
“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.
“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.
The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.
The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.
However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.
The document also states that:
- The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.
- From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.
- Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.
If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.
Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.
That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.
There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.
The Guardian
Benn98
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2014
- Messages
- 42,531
- Reaction score
- 20,512
I find it extraordinary that we still have no travel restrictions in place when awareness of the virus is so omnipresent to the point of depressing here in Birmingham. Italy didn't either and look at what they've had to resort to.
Srdjan
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2012
- Messages
- 4,842
- Reaction score
- 1,278
My country, Serbia, declared state of emergency tonight. Schools, universities, kindergartens and gyms (?) are closed, while public transport is still operating. Gatherings with over 50 persons are prohibited, and people aged 65+ may not leave their homes.
I'm being super careful, I barely touch anything while I'm outside and wash hands after a slightest risk, I ride my bike to work (should start working from home very soon) and avoid being close to people.
I am still getting my head around this, all of it sounds surreal.
I'm being super careful, I barely touch anything while I'm outside and wash hands after a slightest risk, I ride my bike to work (should start working from home very soon) and avoid being close to people.
I am still getting my head around this, all of it sounds surreal.
billiejbob
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2015
- Messages
- 355
- Reaction score
- 291
Looks like Valentino will pay all staff including retail staff during this period regardless if stores or ateliers are closed. Good on them!
I wonder if many other high end brands will do the same...
I wonder if many other high end brands will do the same...
magsaddict
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2016
- Messages
- 964
- Reaction score
- 291
Here in Australia, it's a state of emergency for most parts of the country. A lot of us are now working from home. Most public facilities and museums are closed but retailers are all still open for now - I even got an email this week from a store manager of a french luxury brand inviting us to come for a special event.
Have to say, nice to see the likes of LVMH stepping up to help make sanitiser at a time like this.
Have to say, nice to see the likes of LVMH stepping up to help make sanitiser at a time like this.
Benn98
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2014
- Messages
- 42,531
- Reaction score
- 20,512
How irresponsible to still host special events!?! Anything for an Intastory, I bet it's Vuitton.
Maybe Australians think their current fair weather will shield them from the worst, but winter is coming.
All media events have been cancelled indefinitely in my area. The lifestyle arm of our company which specialises mainly with events and brick-and-mortar stores are up to their eyeballs with event cancellations, temporary shop shutdowns and advertisers pausing campaigns. Definitely affecting the bottom line in a very transparent way.
As we are also working remotely from next week onwards, I'll be going to the North East soon to stay with my gran until the dust has settled. That way she doesn't have to run about on errands and so forth plus it's rural so we have enough space should it come it quarantine. A colleague is desperately trying to book a flu jab with Boots, fat lot of good that will do now.
Anyway, I'm with Bridget! Shut down the shops.
Bridget Foley’s Diary: Rich People, Do the Right Thing
People need what Walmart sells. Nobody NEEDS Dior, Prada or Chanel. Yet the lords of luxury won't close up shop unless forced.
By Bridget Foley on March 16, 2020
What’s going on with luxury retail? As in, why is it going on? With every public official and medical and scientific expert out there pleading with people to avoid all nonessential public encounters that require physical interaction closer than that six-foot distance, how can the lords of luxury continue to keep their doors open for business in locales where governments haven’t mandated closure?
People need some of what Walmart sells — food, groceries, pharmaceuticals. Ditto, Target, CVS and Walgreens, all now partnered with the federal government in trying to stem the coronavirus crisis. Workers at such retailers — sales associates, managers, stock people, security, delivery, all of them — are now in the same category as health-care providers: Their work is essential. They are at risk for the greater good, and God willing, their employers are doing everything possible to ensure their good health. (A monetary bonus during or at the end of the crisis would be nice, too.)
But Dior? Chanel? Ralph Lauren? Prada? Nobody needs what they sell; by definition, luxury is a world of want, not need. For what greater good are their retail employees now endangering themselves and, should one become infected, everyone she or he comes in contact with? To sell a handbag? A source with knowledge of Kering said its U.S. stores will be closed as of Tuesday, but a brand spokesperson did not respond to that question. Among department stores, Saks Fifth Avenue said late Monday that it would close its New York flagship.
So, how many sane shoppers are out perusing stores now, anyway? Italy, Spain and France are in full-on lockdown, and New York and California may be similarly constricted soon. As of Monday night in New York, eat-in restaurants, bars, movie theaters and gyms will be closed for business. In California, all bars, wineries and nightclubs are shuttered. But the luxury purveyors of Beverly Hills, Madison Avenue and other tony enclaves — open for business. There are multiple ironies here, not the least of which is that on any random pre-virus day, a stroll down Madison Avenue would have revealed mostly empty or near-empty stores. At this point, their primary function is “world of” marketing. But to whom? Who in her right mind is out shopping now?
“I need that new ugly sneaker,” or “I need my favorite spring runway look” — hyperbolic fashion speak in the best of times. In the Western world, no one with the means to do so needs to buy a fashion, accessories or beauty anything right now, not a dress, handbag or lip balm. Emily Weiss of Glossier knows that. Last week, the young woman who has catapulted herself from the Teen Vogue intern on “The Hills” to major beauty entrepreneur in remarkably short order proved her mettle as an industry leader — one with her head screwed on right. In a remarkable statement posted to her brand’s web site, she said that she would close Glossier stores for two weeks, and that their staffs would be paid. “We’ll sacrifice some near-term business goals, but we’re prepared to put public health ahead of our bottom line…” she wrote. “We are leaders in retail, in so many ways.…Why wouldn’t we lead here? This quickly became an easy, albeit painful, decision. Together with our community, we will always strive to create less harm and more good in the world.”
Long-established retailers of don’t-need-it-now goods are also striving for the good. Apple, Nike, Urban Outfitters and Everlane are among those who have closed stores while committing to paying their workers, at least through the original duration of closure, typically two weeks.
Patagonia has gone further than all of them; it closed its stores and all operations, even shutting down its web site until at least March 27 when it will offer an update. If employees can work from home, great. Those whose jobs don’t allow for that will also be paid in full. Chief executive officer Rose Marcario noted in a web site post that when faced with challenges, “I have always been inspired by how we emerge stronger and with an even deeper sense of purpose. We will persevere through this challenge, too.”
There’s one person to thank for that: Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard. As the brand’s principal owner, he has long set the tone for a company that lives by its values, proving so again, at this moment of historic upheaval.
Would that others take a page from Chouinard’s book. Most of luxury’s major purveyors, are, like Patagonia, controlled by a billionaire majority owner, whether individual or family, in some cases, one of the richest people in the world. In other words, the one who calls the shots.
Some have announced important coronavirus programs. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is adapting perfume factories to manufacture hand sanitizer that it will give to French hospitals. Prada is donating two intensive care units to hospitals in Milan, while Giorgio Armani, Sergio Rossi, Marco Bizzarri of Gucci, Donatella Versace and Chiari Ferragni have also stepped up. They should be applauded for these highly commendable, initiatives that are outward-facing — and highly marketable.
But what of back home at the ranch? On Monday, I approached several brands with a series of specific questions about their retail employees, whose public-facing roles make them particularly vulnerable to infection. Many of these workers are also likely at the bottom of the brands’ pay scales, in some cases, earning at or near minimum wage.
The questions in a nutshell: is there a dichotomy between corporate staff working from home whenever possible while stores outside of Italy and France remain open, exposing public-facing retail workers to infection? In stores closed or that may be closed in the future, are/will retail workers be paid in full? Are/will they be asked to apply paid time off to store closure time, as has been rumored about several brands in several countries?
Only one brand gave substantive answers: Valentino. While a spokesperson would not speak definitively about additional store closures, she said, “We are managing this situation day by day, country by country. We have established a crisis executive committee (Comex) which is working with all colleagues in all regions in order to be proactive and reactive. On more than one occasion, we have anticipated government decisions.…Our h.r. departments and our Comex are working country by country [to develop] specific actions in line with local regulations but most importantly, in full alignment with our people and with unions, too.”
She stated unequivocally that, “Everyone will be paid, even if the store is not open.…Our organization is putting our employees, our community, at the epicenter of Valentino structure.” Regarding sick leave, “If a Valentino community member becomes sick, we will not request that they use vacation during the illness.”
Finally, as for nonretail jobs that can only be done on-site such as atelier and sample-room work, “Some of these departments have already locked down because we are facing less work than usual and we have proactively reorganized workflows. For sure, all salaries are/will be guaranteed. ”Direct answers — not so hard, right? And surely a relief for Valentino employees to have assurance that, should the virus force a short-term elimination of their jobs, they will be paid.
A Prada spokeswoman at least had a viable reason for her lack of specificity: “We are issuing our FY19 results this Wednesday and we will be able to give more details on the current situation from Wednesday onward.” Beyond that, she offered only that the brand is “strictly following the recommendations issued by the government of each country.”
The other luxury purveyors approached are the obvious suspects — the entities who control the landscape and are controlled by billionaires whose corporate and personal pockets run plenty deep enough to cover the payroll costs of a few weeks of store closures: LVMH, Kering, Chanel, Prada, Hermès, Ralph Lauren.
A Ralph Lauren rep responded with a checklist of what the company is doing in response to the coronavirus crisis, only two points of which had anything to do with the questions asked. She restated the news of the temporary closing of the brand’s hospitality spots in the U.S. and Europe, and noted the establishment of an employee relief fund, through which any employee can apply for a grant of up to $2,500 to help with virus-related financial hardship.
And from Kering, again said to be closing stores on Tuesday: “Kering and its Houses are adopting all the necessary measures to protect the health and safety of their employees, implementing forms of alternative and flexible work, including remote working, and strictly following the guidelines of the respective national authorities in each country in which they operate. The Group and the Houses are constantly monitoring the evolution of the situation.” Phew!
As for LVMH, Hermès and Chanel, reps acknowledged receipt of the query but didn’t get back with responses. Again, the gist is pretty straightforward: If you care about the entirety of your workforce, why aren’t you closing your stores? If you close and you care, will you pay?
Would that the answers were obvious. As Emily Weiss wrote to conclude her Glossier statement, “This is a time for us to remember our humanity.”
WWD
MulletProof
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 28,052
- Reaction score
- 5,210
Aw
. I'm also quarantining to the sound of trees and roosters at the moment lol. It's very relaxing and I've been more productive than ever.The Met thing is sad.. the event itself may be such a shallow spectacle but it's necessary to keep institutions like that growing. There are a lot of internal changes to be made there but that event and the amount of donations is what smaller organizations could only dream of. There had also been some steps forwards in recent months in terms of workers' rights in major arts/cultural institutions and letting them unionize so this will set it all back. And of course, smaller businesses (from dance companies to independent fashion designers) will be impacted the most in the aftermath, many will disappear because a month of inactivity works like a death sentence (especially with the expense of rehearsals for performances that will not take place now and, I assume, major show investments for clothes that will not be produced..?). Like Srdjan, I think it's all pretty surreal.. I don't believe in god or anything supernatural lol but a part of me thinks this forced quiet time for the world became necessary not just for health but to step back and perhaps see what happens when we're not doing what we usually do to our environment and to each other..
softgrey
flaunt the imperfection
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2004
- Messages
- 52,891
- Reaction score
- 311
since we have members from all over, here's a place to share our experiences during our home-stays and give each other firsthand info and support...
feel free to vent about frustrations and concerns and to share ways that you have found to cope with confinement...
stay safe...
stay home...
wash your hands...
xxx
feel free to vent about frustrations and concerns and to share ways that you have found to cope with confinement...
stay safe...
stay home...
wash your hands...
xxx
softgrey
flaunt the imperfection
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2004
- Messages
- 52,891
- Reaction score
- 311
so- I just need to vent...
I had to unfollow a couple people on IG cause they just are whining about being in the house for ONE DAY...
they did a vid -
they open their fridge and one shelf is literally nothing but champagne...
...
and for the one day they didn't even stay in...
they went out for a walk for no apparent reason other than being bored...
like- really?!
and another person posted the wrong info about what to do...
it wasn't a graphic that said go to the hospital if you are sick- which is WRONG!
unless you need a ventilator, the hospital is just going to send you home and tell you to isolate yourself to stop contagion...
by going to the hospital you are actually risking spreading the virus to people who may actually be in a weakened state...
when I pointed it out, she agreed it was wrong...
other people agreed it was wrong...
then I suggested she take it down to avoid spreading misinformation and her response was as follows...
Nope!
...
What the actual F*CK is wrong with people?!?!?!?!
I had to unfollow a couple people on IG cause they just are whining about being in the house for ONE DAY...
they did a vid -
they open their fridge and one shelf is literally nothing but champagne...
...and for the one day they didn't even stay in...
they went out for a walk for no apparent reason other than being bored...
like- really?!
and another person posted the wrong info about what to do...
it wasn't a graphic that said go to the hospital if you are sick- which is WRONG!
unless you need a ventilator, the hospital is just going to send you home and tell you to isolate yourself to stop contagion...
by going to the hospital you are actually risking spreading the virus to people who may actually be in a weakened state...
when I pointed it out, she agreed it was wrong...
other people agreed it was wrong...
then I suggested she take it down to avoid spreading misinformation and her response was as follows...
Nope!
...What the actual F*CK is wrong with people?!?!?!?!
Benn98
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2014
- Messages
- 42,531
- Reaction score
- 20,512
^You have two extremes, the ones who are blithely indifferent and the ones who go into overdrive mode (see British tourists in Magaluf continuing on their party spree, leaving Spanish police at their wits end), and the others who buy everything in bulk thereby clearing out the shelves.
Yesterday I kept a tab open for The Guardian's live updates and every time they posted something new I'd leave what I'm busy with and read/scrolled. By dinnertime, I had a terrible ache where my neck and shoulders meet, without a doubt from stress/anxiety because this morning it's gone. That was such a revelation because I've never experienced something like that.
Yeah, life slows down tremendously in most English villages. You won't be able to get Sainsbury deliveries and the pub will be your best bet for 'a night out' (in general), but then there's also the silence, forest (for some great trail runs!) and scenery to compensate. Actually looking forward to that.
Yesterday I kept a tab open for The Guardian's live updates and every time they posted something new I'd leave what I'm busy with and read/scrolled. By dinnertime, I had a terrible ache where my neck and shoulders meet, without a doubt from stress/anxiety because this morning it's gone. That was such a revelation because I've never experienced something like that.
Aw
Yeah, life slows down tremendously in most English villages. You won't be able to get Sainsbury deliveries and the pub will be your best bet for 'a night out' (in general), but then there's also the silence, forest (for some great trail runs!) and scenery to compensate. Actually looking forward to that.
dodencebt
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Sep 11, 2010
- Messages
- 5,224
- Reaction score
- 2,899
A state of emergency has been declared in my country, with movement restrictions getting announced soon. I am temporarily moving to my partner's place (he has the bigger apartment lol) because we both live alone, and that's not the most optimal arrangement in case anything happens and one of us needs assistance, or we feel like hanging out in the evening when one can't leave their home. I hate that I have to move work equipment and my food stash, but it's for the best right now. Also, I am definitely a stress eater.
Nymphaea
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2012
- Messages
- 6,196
- Reaction score
- 688
2x no, because they barely protect you against the virus, only against large droplets but they do nothing against aerosols etc. and the virus can also enter your body through your eye mucosa. There are always gaps between the maks and your face, only a expensive full gas mask that also covers your eyes will keep the virus outside, but the downside is you will get freaked out (difficult breathing etc.) after wearing it for a couple of hours. Also a contaminated hand touching your face (mouth, nose and/or eyes) can make you infected by the virus. The best method is keeping your distance from other people and wash your hands often and thoroughly and don't touch your face. Masks are meant for people that are sick or doing surgery and don't want to infect other people.
