The death of the fashion trend
DAVID GRAHAM
FASHION WRITER
NEW YORK—Fashion trends are so over.
So says David Wolfe, creative director of the New York-based Doneger Group fashion forecasting company. Speaking to a group of fashion designers, retailers and manufacturers at the Fashion Institute of Technology recently, the flamboyant Wolfe declared the fashion trend is on life-support and may be pronounced dead within the next few years.
Consumers are tired of being bombarded with seasonal trends that fail to address modern lifestyles and modern realities, he says. And worse, trends are coming so fast and furious that they are actually starting to overlap.
Consumers don't know when one trend is over and another one begins.
He warned the rapt fashion insiders that they must heed his advice: "We have to rethink how we work with trends, if we are going to keep fashion profitable."
To make his point, Wolfe briefly chronicled the history of the trend from the pre-trend 1950s, when designers such as Coco Chanel, Balenciaga and Christian Dior created "attractive clothes that looked new. Fashion was high culture then, not pop culture."
Then in the '60s in swinging London, the baby boom phenomenon gave rise to the "boutique culture." Stores such as Biba and Bus Stop promoted modern trends as well as the notion of retro fashion, says Wolfe. London designer Mary Quant may get props for introducing the most famous trend, the mini, but, says Wolfe, it was Japanese designer Kenzo who gained world attention in the '70s by advancing the notion of the blink-and-you've-missed-it fashion trend.
"Kenzo understood that everything was speeding up. He would promote multiple trends in one season. It could be military, Eskimo, Chinese and so on. The trends came pre-packaged," says Wolfe. For example, his Dutch peasant look was precise and left little room for interpretation.
Kenzo's store Jungle Jap may sound politically incorrect by today's standards, but at the time it was a huge hit, says Wolfe. "He was the most knocked-off designer of the decade."
For the next few decades, fashion designers clamoured to create or copy the look that defined the moment. And fashion-conscious consumers followed slavishly...until now.
They are digging in their high heels and stubbornly refusing to be led around by trends that have become so illusive. They have simply become fatigued, says Wolfe.
"We are in an era of trend overkill," he says. "It is a sickness that's threatening to destroy our industry."
Wolfe says trends are not what they used to be. Consumers are confused by the razzmatazz of unrealistic avant-garde designers who show collections they can't relate to. As well, consumers are unable to distinguish among the circus of multiple trends, so they become frustrated and remove themselves from the game. On the overhead screen beside him, Wolfe projects three outrageous images from the last collections of John Galliano, Christian Dior and Alexander McQueen. "The lunatics have overtaken the asylum," he jokes, underscoring the obvious, that consumers cannot relate to or make sense of such excesses.
Wolfe says fashion has to get real if it is going to survive. "Fashion has slipped down a few notches on people's list of priorities. There are a lot of other things out there that interest us."
Jenifur Jarvis, 33, is a Toronto-based costume designer for film and television, who recalls that her teens and 20s were spent slavishly following the latest fashion trends. "These days I look for classic things that are still young. I look for quality and things that will last. Jarvis cringes to think of the money she spent on clothes that went out of fashion's favour within a few months. "It's hard to justify spending money that way any more."
Fashion trends have always been the preoccupation of the young. Mature women have been complaining for years that they can't find clothes they feel comfortable wearing, as stores fill with belly-revealing T-shirts and skin-tight, low-rise, distressed-to-within-a-thread-of-their-lives jeans.
But the aging baby boomer generation is still imposing its financial clout on the industry. Designers may have been doing themselves a disservice by ignoring this demographic.
Wolfe believes the oppressive trend will be replaced by something gentler and easier to absorb into your lifestyle.
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`We have to rethink how we work with trends, if we are going to keep fashion profitable.'
David Wolfe, creative director Doneger Group fashion forecasting company
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Designers, manufacturers and retailers should look for what Wolfe calls "action points" if they want to appeal to modern consumers.
They've got to look past the trend to see the subtext, he advises. "Look past the specifics to see the fabrics, shapes and colours" that will help people feel comfortable and modern.
Appreciate the generalities, he says. Focus on fashion directions that allow for a variety of interpretations. The popular lady look does not have to be interpreted strictly as a prim Miss Manners style. It can simply mean that genuine glamour and refined femininity is replacing fashion vulgarity.
With class making a comeback, Wolfe recommends looking for old-fashioned colours, antique fabrics and nostalgic details.
Trends will not be associated with a specific item of clothing, such as the peasant blouse, the kitten heel, the low-rise pant or the shrunken blazer. Rather they will have more to do with moods and themes.
Wolfe also advises fashion players to replace the immense profitability associated with rapid-fire fashion trends with "value-added merchandise."
He says consumers are not adverse to spending money on fashion as long as it feels and looks worthy. He notes that fashion customers, particularly the baby boomer demographic, want some bang for their buck.
Paul Pelssers, also a forecaster with the Doneger Group, advises designers and manufactures to investigate fabrics with unconventional weaves and treatments. He also promotes the addition of interesting details and professional finishes. "Add a matching belt to the dress or cardigan," Pelssers advised. "It's all about added value."
Wolfe, who predicts a return to minimalist fashions in high-end fabrics, says these more interesting categories will be "more profitable merchandise to sell than T-shirts. There is no price resistance to things that look like they are worth the money."
He says the day of the $200 cotton T-shirt is coming to an end.
While the maturing consumer appears willing to open their wallets as long as there's value, there is still an enthusiastic demographic of the fashion market that appreciates the quick turnover of trends.
Sajjad Hudda, a vice-president at Clothing For Modern Times, which owns 27 Urban Behavior stores, 15 Costa Blanca stores as well as six outlets across Canada, has built a retailing empire on disposable trends. His stores, which cater to a decidedly junior market, are based on a formula that promises they will be constantly replenished with new trends.
"That can require as many as 20 to 30 new trends every week," he says. Key to the success of this formula is the price point. The average price of an item sold at Urban Behavior stores is $20, says Hudda.
The company's trend forecasters travel the world looking for new styles.
"One week it's the Chanel bouclé jacket, then it's the poncho. By fall, kids will want the motocross jacket. Then, by the fourth quarter, his young consumers are predicted to want trucker wear, the gas station attendant look and security guard shirts. While Hudda and his team struggle to stay ahead of oncoming trends, he acknowledges it's difficult to plan more than three months in advance. "It's completely exhausting," he says.
"As soon as a trend becomes legitimate, no one wants to wear it anymore," he says. "The customer gets bored quickly and there is a cool factor associated with wearing the latest trend. When we're right, we can sell it out in a week. But when we're wrong, we can't give it away."
Curiously, Hudda and his company bucked the branding trend at the height of its popularity. The prices associated with branded merchandise were too high. As well, the preoccupation with brands led to a sameness in the merchandise at retail. Diesel jeans were expensive no matter where you bought them. "We couldn't compete."
But by knowing his customer, most particularly the girl between 15 and 18, Hudda has created a trend monster. "We've spoiled our customers. Now they want something new and fresh every week."
For this reason Hudda agrees retailers like him may have contributed to the death of the fashion trend as we once knew it. And he sees no end in sight. As long as there are fickle girls and boys who want to impress them, there will be inexpensive, frivolous fashion trends.
But for consumers over the age of 18, the new trend is to ignore trends.
over it..... 
actually i dont see them anymore.
