Big number. Is there a rigorous study behind it?
yes me like facts
i need to find the article again i read it this morning but its from Bain luxury data the research
But more outlets wrote about it like this Vogue one below and BOF below has also something on the 2 % VIC
VOGUE BUSINESS
After two years of sluggish demand, the luxury market will return to growth in 2026, up between 3% and 5%, according to the latest report from management consultancy Bain, in partnership with Italian luxury goods association Altagamma.
The organizations expect 2025 spending to close broadly flat at €1.44 trillion (between -1% and 1% growth). The personal luxury goods market is expected to reach €358 billion by the end of the year, compared to €364 billion last year and €369 billion in 2023 — a 2% year-on-year decline at current exchange rates, and flat at constant rates.
It’s a promising light at the end of the tunnel after a prolonged slump for luxury. In 2024, the market contracted for the first time (excluding Covid) since the great recession.
The market shrunk by 2%, and luxury lost 50 million customers i
n the process. In June, Bain said the outlook for 2025 was clouded by
tariffs and had outlined three possible scenarios for performance. Now, Bain is forecasting the best scenario, with better-than-expected performance in the US more than compensating for softer-than-expected results in Europe. Bain confirmed that over the next 10 years, the personal luxury goods market is likely to grow between 4% and 6% per year, reaching between €525 billion and €625 billion, while overall luxury spending could span €2.2 trillion to €2.7 trillion.
“It’s good news that, given the global uncertainties — turmoil, tariffs, geopolitical instability, wars, the macroeconomic environment and consumer confidence — this market is stable. This is a positive message, because it seems that customers have an appetite for luxury,” says Federica Levato, partner at Bain, who co-authored the report.
By market, the Middle East and rest of world category performed the best, up between 4% and 6% this year driven by tourist flows and local demand.
The Americas remained relatively stable, with volatility in the first half but recovery in the second, thanks to the stock market recovery and confidence among high-earning consumers. Europe suffered due to a lack of tourists, as did Japan; Mainland China is still down, but has
started showing some signs of stabilization as of Q3. As a whole, this amounted to a more stable global luxury market.
Despite the improvements, brands are still failing to provide sufficient value. Luxury’s new customer acquisition has declined 5% in the past year, and the market is currently serving less than half — between 40% and 45% — of its addressable consumers (in 2022, the figure was around 60%). “The gap is widening, and this is a worrying message for the market,” says Levato. “Even the very wealthy customers are feeling betrayed by the continued elevation, so they are directing their spending to other categories — travel, experiences, or value-for-money brands.”
BOF
How Luxury Brands Aim to Keep the 2% Coming Back for More
Exclusive labels are lavishing top-spending clients with special events as luxury’s customer base shrinks.
Mytheresa held a client event in Turin. (Lucas Possiede)
18 December 2025
BoF PROFESSIONAL
Key insights
- Retaining top-spending clients is paramount for high-end brands as they navigate a two-year slump.
- “It is no longer just about owning beautiful objects; it is about the memories we create around them,” said Boucheron chief executive Hélène Poulit-Duquesne.
- From opera-house dinners in Turin to mosaic-making lessons in Rome, luxury houses are becoming more creative with personalized events to deepen loyalty.
Aqila Agha has been buying large quantities of Gucci products for 30 years, first dressing her daughters, now 17 and 21, in the storied Italian fashion label when they were infants. She sometimes purchases an entire Gucci collection and has a personal stylist at the brand’s corner in Harrods.
“My husband always says there are three people in this marriage – him, me and Gucci,” said Agha, who lives in London. “He’s not wrong, but if I’m happy, he’s happy.”
Keeping top spenders like Agha happy and coming back for more is critical for Gucci and its luxury rivals as they navigate a two-year slump. Inflation and economic uncertainty have weighed on appetite from aspirational shoppers, with the industry losing 60 million customers since 2022, according to estimates from consultancy Bain. Clients across the spectrum are questioning the value proposition of luxury goods amid soaring prices, tariffs and reports of worker exploitation in supply chains.
In this choppy environment, luxury houses are drawing on experiences as a key tool in their brand arsenal, pulling out all the stops with unusual and creative events to keep their wealthiest clients engaged.
“You need to do more than just the usual flagship store opening VIP parties with champagne and canapés where you see the new collection,” said Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet, noting it is becoming more expensive to recruit and retain top customers.
In October, Gucci offered Agha the opportunity to purchase a red coat – a style seen on Demi Moore in the film “The Tiger” and one of the first pieces designed by Demna for Gucci – well before it becomes more widely available in January. She has been a guest of Gucci at fashion shows in Paris and Milan, including once with her daughters.
Aqila Agha's Gucci coat, the style Demi Moore wore in the film “The Tiger.” (Aqila Agha)
Analysts estimate VICs, usually defined as the top 2-4 percent of spenders, account for as much as 40 percent of luxury goods sales. For some companies, it’s even higher – at Mytheresa, 4 percent of customers generate almost half of annual revenue.
For the past decade, Mytheresa has created distinct experiences for clients, often in collaboration with the client’s brand of choice. The German luxury e-tailer recently took top clients to Venice for lunch, followed by a factory tour in nearby Vicenza, to see knitwear being made for Alaïa. The founder of the factory, who was a friend of the house’s founder, Azzedine Alaïa, was on hand for the tour; a dinner with the chief executives of Mytheresa and Alaïa followed.
Mytheresa has also held a series of Dolce & Gabbana-themed multi-day events in Taormina this year, taking clients to the Four Seasons hotel featured in season 2 of “The White Lotus.” In October, it teamed up with Zegna, inviting a small group of guests to dine on the stage of Turin’s sprawling opera house, with a private performance of four sopranos singing arias from “La Bohème” and “La Traviata.”
“We are always thinking about how we can engage with customers in a very bespoke way,” said Amber Pepper, Mytheresa’s chief marketing and customer service officer. “These opportunities enhance loyalty. They really bring the emotional connection between the customer and us. They bring them into our community.”
Companies do not disclose how much revenue they generate with VICs (Agha also declined to disclose any figures), but some analysts estimate it exceeds $100,000 per year in some cases, though often spread among several brands.
Asked about the profitability of such client events, Mytheresa declined to provide financial details, but said they were key for building loyalty.
“Absolutely they work or we wouldn’t be doing them,” said Mytheresa’s Pepper. “We have a lot of data [showing efficacy]. If you do it in the right way, these events can create very, very strong loyalty with customers.”
Moncler has also partnered with Mytheresa to launch new lines, taking clients last year to Oslo and this month to Gstaad, in the Swiss Alps. Armani has held several-day events in Venice where clients dined in the Doge’s Palace and on the island of Capri.
Boucheron recently hosted a dinner in New York City’s Central Park and an event at the French embassy in Bangkok that included a runway show to present the label’s jewellery.
French jewellery house Boucheron held an intimate dinner in New York City's Central Park. (Patricia Burmicky for Central Park Conservancy)
“I strongly believe the future of luxury is experiential and emotional,” said Boucheron CEO Hélène Poulit-Duquesne. “It is no longer just about owning beautiful objects; it is about the memories we create around them. Offering these ‘money-can’t-buy’ moments allows us to build a genuine, intimate connection with our clients.”
Guests at Maria Grazia Chiuri’s last runway show for Dior, held in Rome in May, were invited on a special tour of the city organised by If Experience, a local events company.
Rome-based If Experience also recently set up private events for Bulgari Hotels that included a mosaic-making lesson in the loggia of the 13th Century House of the Knights of Rhodes overlooking the Roman Forum. They also offered an intimate jewellery-making session with Bulgari creative director Lucia Silvestri.
“An experience for 50 or 60 people is no longer good enough,” said Filippo Cosmelli, an art historian and creative director of If Experience. “It used to be brands wanted to organise a dinner for 300 people. Now, they want something for two people.”
Agha, who was a Gucci VIC long before lavish experiences became more prevalent, said the brand’s efforts are keeping her engaged. Gucci has taken her on trips to Florence and other cities, immersing her in brand history. At a dinner, she was seated across the table from Francois-Henri Pinault, chairman of Gucci-owner Kering, and met his wife, the actress Salma Hayek, at another event.
Aqila Agha attends a Gucci dinner. ((Aqila Agha))
“I can 100 percent say from my own experience – and I shop with different brands – that Gucci really look after their clients,” said Agha. “The Italians are in a league of their own in terms of hospitality, being part of the family and it feels genuine.”
But she was quick to point out that her loyalty isn’t guaranteed from collection to collection. Surprised by the choice of Demna as creative director for Gucci, Agha said she’s still not sure he’ll be the right fit.
She liked Demna’s take on the archives, ahead of his own vision for Gucci to come at the next Milan fashion week, noting Tom Ford and Alessandro Michele were two of her favorite previous designers at the brand.
“I want to see the first collection that’s really Demna’s before deciding,” Agha said.
and that’s why we get these designers, because they represent the society we live in.
