81st Annual Academy Awards predictions

[Chaky]

Let's bump this thread. We're in December now.

Just curious, which of these have you seen yet? Or are these ones the trade mags/internet are buzzing over?

I've heard very good things about The Wrestler and Milk. Slumdog Millionaire seems to be winning fans also.

Australia has had mixed reviews I thought.

 

[LolaSvelt]

deschanel - yeah, she had a year off last year. All three of her films released shockingly didn't do well!

eternitygoddess - unfortunately, Australia is probably out. Mixed reviews. It's still in the race for techs though (like Cinematography and possibly Special Effects?).

Chaky - I've seen Happy-Go-Lucky (excellent film, one of the best this year), Tropic
Thunder and The Dark Knight. The UK (like you!) is really slow at releasing films. Most of them won't even be released by next year. It's mostly buzz. I really can't wait to see The Wrestler, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire!

 

[LolaSvelt]

Oh, and I've also seen I've Loved You So Long, Changeling and The Visitor.

 

[Chaky]

I wasn't sure about seeing Happy-Go-Lucky. I live next door to this relentlessly happy woman and she annoys the hell out of me. And I say that even though I quite like Mike Leigh.

I'm a massive fan of Aronofsky's first two films and I thought he made a major misstep with The Fountain (note: don't cast your wife/girlfriend in the lead role of your movie). But Empire gave The Wrestler 5 stars this month so it sounds like he's back on track.

Another that I hope to see very soon is Waltz With Bashir. This will be Israel's official entry but I wonder if it could cross over from the Foreign Language category?

 

[Ziegfeld Girl]

What about Baz Luhrman's Australia?

I saw Australia a couple of days ago and I thought it was ok but I don't think it will be getting any big nominations like acting, directing, best picture, writing. I can really only see it being nominated for art direction and costume design.

 

[LolaSvelt]

NBR Awards:

Best Film: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Best Foreign Film: “Mongol”
Best Documentary: “Man on Wire”
Best Animated Feature: “WALL-E”
Best Ensemble Cast: “Doubt”
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Dev Patel, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Directorial Debut: Courtney Hunt, “Frozer River”
Best Original Screenplay: Nick Schenk, “Gran Torino”
Best Adapted Screenplay (tie Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire” and Eric Roth, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

The top ten (in alphabetical order
“Burn After Reading”
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Defiance”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Gran Torino”
“Milk”
“WALL-E”
“The Wrestler”

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order
“Edge of Heaven”
“Let the Right One In”
“Roman de Guerre”
“A Secret”
“Waltz with Bashir”

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order
“American Teen”
“The Betrayal”
“Dear Zachary”
“Encounters at the End of the World”
“Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired”

William K. Everson Film History Award: Molly Haskell, Andrew Sarris
Spotlight Award: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River,” Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: “Trumbo”

This is usually seen as the one that kickstarts awards season.

 

[Ziegfeld Girl]

Nominations were announced today.

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2009/oscars

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall
Frost/Nixon (2008 Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner
Milk (2008 Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks
The Reader (2008 Nominees to be determined
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Christian Colson

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I)
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Sean Penn for Milk (2008)
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)
Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008)
Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008)
Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I)
Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin for Milk (2008)
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008)
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I)
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I)
Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)
Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I)
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008)

Best Achievement in Directing
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008)
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008)

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Frozen River (2008 Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky (2008 Mike Leigh
In Bruges (2008 Martin McDonagh
Milk (2008 Dustin Lance Black
WALL·E (2008 Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt (2008/I John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon (2008 Peter Morgan
The Reader (2008 David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Simon Beaufoy

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Changeling (2008 Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight (2008 Wally Pfister
The Reader (2008 Roger Deakins, Chris Menges
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Anthony Dod Mantle

Best Achievement in Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight (2008 Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon (2008 Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
Milk (2008 Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Chris Dickens

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Changeling (2008 James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight (2008 Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess (2008 Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road (2008 Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Australia (2008 Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Jacqueline West
The Duchess (2008 Michael O'Connor
Milk (2008 Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road (2008 Albert Wolsky

Best Achievement in Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight (2008 John Caglione Jr., Conor O'Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2008 Mike Elizalde, Thomas Floutz

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Alexandre Desplat
Defiance (2008 James Newton Howard
Milk (2008 Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 A.R. Rahman
WALL·E (2008 Thomas Newman

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 A.R. Rahman, Gulzar("Jai Ho")
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 A.R. Rahman, Maya Arulpragasam("O Saya")
WALL·E (2008 Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman("Down to Earth")

Best Achievement in Sound
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
The Dark Knight (2008 Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
WALL·E (2008 Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
Wanted (2008 Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
The Dark Knight (2008 Richard King
Iron Man (2008 Frank E. Eulner, Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire (2008 Tom Sayers
WALL·E (2008 Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
Wanted (2008 Wylie Stateman

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008 Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
The Dark Knight (2008 Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man (2008 John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Bolt (2008 Chris Williams, Byron Howard
Kung Fu Panda (2008 John Stevenson, Mark Osborne
WALL·E (2008 Andrew Stanton

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (2008)(Germany)
Entre les murs (2008)(France)
Revanche (2008)(Austria)
Okuribito (2008)(Japan)
Vals Im Bashir (2008)(Israel)

Best Documentary, Features
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon (2008 Ellen Kuras, Thavisouk Phrasavath
Encounters at the End of the World (2007 Werner Herzog, Henry Kaiser
The Garden (2008/I Scott Hamilton Kennedy
Man on Wire (2008 James Marsh, Simon Chinn
Trouble the Water (2008 Tia Lessin, Carl Deal

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
The Conscience of Nhem En: Steven Okazaki
The Final Inch: Irene Taylor Brodsky, Tom Grant
Smile Pinki: Megan Mylan
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306: Adam Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde

Best Short Film, Animated
La Maison en Petits Cubes: Kunio Kato
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya (2007 Konstantin Bronzit
Oktapodi (2007 Emud Mokhberi, Thierry Marchand
Presto (2008 Doug Sweetland
This Way Up (2008 Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes

Best Short Film, Live Action
Auf der Strecke (2007 Reto Caffi
Manon sur le bitume (2007 Elizabeth Marre, Olivier Pont
New Boy (2007 Steph Green, Tamara Anghie
Grisen (2008 Tivi Magnusson, Dorthe Warnø Høgh
Spielzeugland (2007 Jochen Alexander Freydank

 

[meganleigh]

I was shocked that Kate Winslet didn't get nominated for Revolutionary Road, considering she won the Golden Globe, and same with the lady from Happy Go Lucky. but overall I think the nominations are quite good, nothing too surprising besides what I already mentioned

 

[LoveLetter]

I haven't seen The Reader yet. Anyone?
I was surprised that Kate didn't get nomiated for RR as well. But a friend of mine said that maybe the Academy thinks her performance in The Reader is stronger so she is in for that movie and she will still win the best actress award.

 

[MulletProof]

gah, I'm so upset I haven't seen Encounters at the end of the world.. I just can't find it, not even online, it's frustrating.
Also want to see Milk and The Reader.
Just saw The Curious Case of Benjamin Button last night and wasn't that impressed, although Taraji's acting was indeed quite touching in such a subtle manner.

 

[Legyviel]

I haven't seen so many nominated films this year... Glad Ledger got nominated though.

 

[irulan]

Like at the globes, keeping fingers crossed for Kate and Amy. They definitely deserve one! Most of these movies aren't out in Germany, though. Big haha at Australia which completely sucked. I hate it that they keep on nominating German movies, they are always gray and guilt-ridden...
I'm sorry, but no Oscar for Ledger, please. I think an Oscar should be given to somebody who dreams of getting one and will be very happy when it happens (anyone remembers Halle Berry?).

 

[*Bianca*]

gah, I'm so upset I haven't seen Encounters at the end of the world.. I just can't find it, not even online, it's frustrating.

I'm about to watch it right now! I'll find out where my friend dl'd it from

 

[Symetrie]

For the best actress category, I really want Kate Winslet to win because she did a very impressive performance in The Reader. But I am still torn between her and Meryl Streep because Meryl did an amazing job as well in Doubt.

Oh, and no Cate Blanchett nomination for this year? I'm surprised.

 

[Chaky]

I saw The Reader yesterday. To be honest I'm absolutely stunned at the number of nominations it has.

For the first hour I thought it was a reasonable drama but then there is a courtroom scene in which Kate's character takes a decision so ludicrous that it completely destroyed any goodwill I had towards the film. Her final scene in her prison cell made me roll my eyes. I just don't see how people can consider this a good movie. The acting is decent but there's no way this should be a Best Picture nominee. The Wrestler was robbed.

 

[MyNameIs]

I didn't care for The Reade either. It has good acting, but that's where the good stops. I wouldn't mind if Kate takes the Oscar because she really is overdue. I wish she had won for her very first nomination, Sense and Sensibility. But honestly, she doesn't deserve to win. Of the nominated performance I've seen all but Anne Hathaway and of the ones I've seen Melissa Leo gives far and away the best performance. If any of you haven't seen Frozen River yet, please do so. It's a great little movie and Melissa Leo is phenomenal.

In Best Actor category, I only saw Rourke and Pitt. Pitt was serviceable, but I don't mind his nomination either because, well, we all deserve a break once in a while. My winner is Rourke and I don't see any of the other three impressing me any more than he did.

For Supporting Actor, it's obvious Ledger will take this. I didn't think the movie was that great, but Ledger was so I'll be happy for his win even though I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be winning anything was he still alive. I thought Downey Jr was excellent (Wish Tom Cruise got nominated alongside too) and PS Hoffman was great as well, but not worthy of a win. Haven't seen the other two.

Best Supporting Actress is my favorite since 01 when I loved all five. I wouldn't mind any one of them winning. Amy Adams is the weakest of the five, but she was robbed for an Oscar for Junebug, so I'm ok with a makeup. But I think the race is between Penelope and Davis who is ripe for an upset. My preference is Penelope whom I loved in a that mediocre film, but again I wouldn't mind any one of the five winning.

For Picture/Director, it's Slumdog without a doubt. The Reader doesn't even deserve to be nominated. Milk and Frost/Nixon, though I haven't seen, should be thankful to be nominated as well. I can see Bejamin Button upsetting, given its 13 nominations and all, but it'll be tough. I loved Slumdog on the first viewing, but not so much on the second, but it will win. It's one of the weakest lineups in recent years. Where's Wall-E? The Wrestler? Oh well, I'm excited for the ceremony anyway.

 

[sleepingbeauty13]

I have not seen The Reader yet but I thought Kate's role in it was a supporting role not a leading role. She was nominated for her role in The Reader in the supporting actress category for both the Golden Globes and SAG awards, so I was surprised to see her being nominated in the leading actress category for the Oscar with that movie. I'm not surprised she is nominated in that category but I thought she would have been nominated for Revolutionary Road instead.

 

[LolaSvelt]

Let's bump this thread with some (horrible) information:

Original Song performances reduced to a 65-second medley in favour of Zac Efron, Vanessa Hudgens, Hugh Jackman and Beyoncé performing a huge number.

Zac Efron is also presenting Original Song (EW, he might actually give the Oscar to Peter Gabriel, A.R. Rahman or M.I.A and A.R. Rahman. Robert Pattinson is also presenting, but I don't mind that.

Traditionally, the previous acting winners present. Not happening this year.

Only the nominees will grace the red carpet.

That's a lot of bad information. It looks like the Oscars is turning into the MTV Movie Awards. What next? Lauren Conrad and Heidi Montag seat filling the place? On a positive note, Steve Martin and Tina Fey are presenting together.

I'll probably only watch to support Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, Pené (or I wouldn't mind any of the other Supporting Actress nominees) and Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke (either one would be great).

 

[irulan]

Sounds like it will suck. Don't take the red carpet away from us!!!
(Not minding Robert Pattinson though...)

 

[MyNameIs]

This year's ceremeony is going to suck bad. All those presenters? Ugh. And NO RED CARPET?!?!? What is wrong with them. That's the best part.

Ugh, screw you Bill Condon.