Talking Movie Awards 2011

[Scott]

this is an entirely different ballgame for tilda this time round as this is a best actress category......so i'm thrilled for her. too bad the film nor lynn ramsay haven't been given a little more recognition.

btw,what happened with melancholia? all i've been hearing since its release was that it would be highly considered during awards season. so far,it hasn't been nominated for anything. i haven't seen the film yet so i can't really speak to it's quality but surely with such buzz it would have garnered at least something.

 

[littlepaperstars]

^ Lars Von Trier and his inability to keep his mouth shut is what happened to Melencholia! His Oscar chances died that day he made that comment in Cannes.

 

[MyNameIs]

What a whirlwind week, with all these awards coming in. GGs gave us their typical mix of reasonable with the star obsessed. Nominations for Madonna and Angelina Jolie? lol But the worst thing is their obscene obsession with George Clooney. Not only did he receive THREE individual nominations (Screenplay, Actor, Director) but two of his movies are in Best Picture lineup, including the "ignored by every group" The Ides of March. Maybe Clooney is a good person, but at this point, I can't stand all the media obsessing over him, so I hope that something happens to take his stock down a notch.

Anyway, Extremely Loud and Incredibly close is DEAD! If there's one lesson we learned from the Globes, that is it. It did fairly well at BFCA, but to be completely ignored by the SAG and GGs, I don't see how it can recover. I mean, not even a token nod for Bullock or say Score? Dragon Tattoo is as good as dead as well. It did get Score and Actress nomination, but, considering it was ignored everywhere else, it needed a better showing. Drive and The Tree of Life take a hit, but I think Tree can comeback. War Horse is incomplete, because yeah, it got a Picture nomination, but nothing for Spielberg? The Artist, The Descendants and The Help are locks. Midnight in Paris came up really strong as well, with that Ensemble nod yesterday and a good showing with the Globes today.

Poor Elizabeth Olsen. I was really hoping she'd get nominated here which would keep her hopes alive. Alas, they went with Mara instead. Gary Oldman is in the same boat, unless BAFTA go crazy for him/his film. Can't believe Leo will be getting a nomination for that critically panned mass of a film. Ugh.

Shocked to see that McCarthy was left out. A month ago, I would've said that if she's getting nominated anywhere, it would be at the Globes. But no, she made it at BFCA AND SAG, but is a no show here. I think that's where her campaign stops. Actually, I think Globes' Best Supporting Actress lineup will be identical to the Oscars' group. Albert Brooks makes a rebound after yesterday, but Nick Nolte is now gone. All the while, Jonah Hill is just cruising along. With von Sydow seemingly out of the picture and no other suitable contenders, I think Hill is looking good for a nomination at this point. I won't be too upset with it, but I don't think it would be especially deserving.

Without anything major (well Chicago Critics) coming up until beginning of January, I'll post my new predictions later today. Seems most races have at least 4 out of 5 spots determined and just a couple of contenders fighting for that last spot in each category.

 

[MyNameIs]

btw,what happened with melancholia? all i've been hearing since its release was that it would be highly considered during awards season. so far,it hasn't been nominated for anything. i haven't seen the film yet so i can't really speak to it's quality but surely with such buzz it would have garnered at least something.

I agree with littlepaperstars that Lars didn't help his cause when he made those comments at Cannes, but I also think Melancholia is just not the type of movie to make a run at the awards. How many of Lars' movie succeeded in this game anyway? Unless I'm forgetting something, his only major Oscar nomination came for Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves. Even Bjork was snubbed (although she did get a Song nomination). Then there were Dogville and Antichrist, both with good reviews and some buzz, but didn't go anywhere. Once in a while, an 'edgy' film will get in on the action, but most of the time, it's movies like The Help getting nominated.

 

[dajrekshn]

i don't think Dragon Tattoo is dead, it's still not out, hence GG, which is all about popularity, is in the dark about it. Rooney Mara, IMO, if the movie goes well on the boxoffice and by the critics (as it already did in that section) will probably go head to head with Charlize on that 5th spot for the Best Actress since Michelle, Viola, Tilda and Meryl are, IMO, totally in.

about Melancholia, despite Trier movie not being your regular Oscar attendee, i do think Melancholia is close to being the most tame one from him in all of his career and if it weren't for that Cannes scandal, i do think it might've even hit Best Movie and Best Actress/Supporting Actress categories.

i think Plummer is the closest one to winning in his category (IMO, he was amazing in the Beginners) and apparently Oldman's going to be favourite in his category.

 

[LolaSvelt]

Seriously, what happened to Elizabeth Olsen's buzz? How could she not sustain it? Did they not see the film?! She was much better than Glenn Close. I don't care if it took her over two decades to get the film made, she was not that good. Plus, Janet McTeer stole the show. I wonder how Jennifer Lawrence would've fared had Winter's Bone been released this year.

 

[Scott]

you guys are probably right. not that i was necessarily in defense of the film just surprised there wasn't anything to show for all that buzz and high praise. i would also venture to suspect that lars' position against the awards system are likely to be a cause too. he's long been an outspoken critic of the academy process. which kind of feels a little fascistic on the academy's part as in a way how he's treated sometimes reminds me of those old days of blacklisting.....where one's art is muzzled based purely on one's subjective language or actions. to be honest,i find the attitude of the film establishments as equally reprehensible,in that regard.

 

[dajrekshn]

Seriously, what happened to Elizabeth Olsen's buzz? How could she not sustain it? Did they not see the film?! She was much better than Glenn Close. I don't care if it took her over two decades to get the film made, she was not that good. Plus, Janet McTeer stole the show. I wonder how Jennifer Lawrence would've fared had Winter's Bone been released this year.

Rooney Mara and top notch campaign happened. although i disagree with you about the movie (i thought it was absolute rubbish), it is "funny" to see how quickly the game keeps changing as we're getting closer to the Oscars.

 

[Spiral1532]

i don't think Dragon Tattoo is dead, it's still not out, hence GG, which is all about popularity, is in the dark about it. Rooney Mara, IMO, if the movie goes well on the boxoffice and by the critics (as it already did in that section) will probably go head to head with Charlize on that 5th spot for the Best Actress since Michelle, Viola, Tilda and Meryl are, IMO, totally in.

I really don't see Glenn Close being shut out of the Best Actress category. She hasn't had an Oscar nod since the 80s(!). For that reason alone, I doubt she'll be passed over for someone else. In fact, a lot of people are aching to see a battle of the Oscar heavyweights: Meryl vs Glenn. I don't necessarily think Glenn will win though. This might in fact be Meryl's year.

And regarding Dragon Tattoo, I see it more getting a nod for BP as well as director (considering that some diehard fans of David Fincher felt he was "robbed" of a win last year). Regardless, I'm pretty sure the movie will do well at the box office.

 

[dajrekshn]

I really don't see Glenn Close being shut out of the Best Actress category. She hasn't had an Oscar nod since the 80s(!). For that reason alone, I doubt she'll be passed over for someone else. In fact, a lot of people are aching to see a battle of the Oscar heavyweights: Meryl vs Glenn. I don't necessarily think Glenn will win though. This might in fact be Meryl's year.

And regarding Dragon Tattoo, I see it more getting a nod for BP as well as director (considering that some diehard fans of David Fincher felt he was "robbed" of a win last year). Regardless, I'm pretty sure the movie will do well at the box office.

i dunno about Glenn, tbh. AN has been sacked by the critics and she hasn't been in the spotlight much, i dunno how she's gonna go head to head with Charlize's and Rooney's heavy campaigning since i think all other 4 spots are already secured by the other actresses.

agreed about TGWTDT.

 

[MyNameIs]

First of all, I forgot to say this before, I'm SO HAPPY that Brandan Gleeson got nominated for The Guard. It's such a brilliant, hilarious and touching performance. YAY.

Seriously, what happened to Elizabeth Olsen's buzz? How could she not sustain it? Did they not see the film?! She was much better than Glenn Close. I don't care if it took her over two decades to get the film made, she was not that good. Plus, Janet McTeer stole the show. I wonder how Jennifer Lawrence would've fared had Winter's Bone been released this year.

It breaks my heart to see it go down like that. She had so much buzz coming out of Sundance and even going into the awards season, but somehow Critics never really got fully behind it. Maybe the whole situation was just too similar to Jennifer Lawrence last year and everyone was just over it? Whatever it is though, it's shameful. She gave a stunning performance. I agree her performance was much better than Close, but I will also say that I'm glad Close is getting nominated, if only because she was robbed of her Oscar for Dangerous Liaisons. I'd rather Streep, Williams or Davis was left out tbh (though I've not seen the first two performances so I can't say whether their awards are deserving or not).

As far as Rooney Mara goes, I just don't see it happening. Yeah, she got a Globe nomination, but that's literally the only thing she got (well that Breakthrough at NBR, but meh) so I don't think one nomination magically transforms her status. She'll need a great box office and lots of buzz the next month or so to overtake Close, the only vulnerable actress in the top five. But lets not think Glenn will go away without a fight. She'll campaign her *** off and she's already got a good narrative going on, so things are looking good for her. True her movie isn't getting good reviews, but neither did DiCaprio's. Plus there are instances of actors getting nominated for terribly reviewed movies (Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth 2, etc.).

 

[pixiedust1603]

I think being nominated at the SAGs has really boosted Glenn's cause and she'll probably take the 5th spot as people in industry like and respect her a lot. Rooney just doesn't seem to be taking off which is surprising and Charlize's role, even though from what I've heard she's fabulous, is just not likeable. Olsen is completely out as if she can't get in for the Globes, there really is no hope for her at all.

 

[SnejanaIsMyMuse]

Seeing as how The Artist is being so favorably reviewed, I've a feeling Bérénice Bejo will be in the Oscar's supporting actress category as well(though I suspect Jessica Chastain will receive the award).

 

[dajrekshn]

First of all, I forgot to say this before, I'm SO HAPPY that Brandan Gleeson got nominated for The Guard. It's such a brilliant, hilarious and touching performance. YAY.



It breaks my heart to see it go down like that. She had so much buzz coming out of Sundance and even going into the awards season, but somehow Critics never really got fully behind it. Maybe the whole situation was just too similar to Jennifer Lawrence last year and everyone was just over it? Whatever it is though, it's shameful. She gave a stunning performance. I agree her performance was much better than Close, but I will also say that I'm glad Close is getting nominated, if only because she was robbed of her Oscar for Dangerous Liaisons. I'd rather Streep, Williams or Davis was left out tbh (though I've not seen the first two performances so I can't say whether their awards are deserving or not).

As far as Rooney Mara goes, I just don't see it happening. Yeah, she got a Globe nomination, but that's literally the only thing she got (well that Breakthrough at NBR, but meh) so I don't think one nomination magically transforms her status. She'll need a great box office and lots of buzz the next month or so to overtake Close, the only vulnerable actress in the top five. But lets not think Glenn will go away without a fight. She'll campaign her *** off and she's already got a good narrative going on, so things are looking good for her. True her movie isn't getting good reviews, but neither did DiCaprio's. Plus there are instances of actors getting nominated for terribly reviewed movies (Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth 2, etc.).

i think that Lawrence had that luck that she was the only one of the youngsters who was outstanding in 2010. (and with Carey's buzz from 2010 giving her support), while Lizzie had Felicity and now Rooney up against. add to that pot the "old" ones with total cred like Close, Theron and Meryl (who's, at this point,is basically being nominated for each movie she does despite how well the movie was and her win is now a matter of pure statistics) with movies out this year and who just have to get at least to the final round before the noms it seems this was bound to happen (despite her being my personal favourite revelation this year).

 

[Chaky]

Golden Globes list. Normally I scoff at the ridiculousnnes of the HFPA's choices, they're totally nuts it's a joke, but the fact that they included Gosling twice & Fassbender makes me all warm inside so I'll save my scoffing this year, plus they never really have any bearing on the Oscars anyway.

I can't believe they've nominated Ryan Gosling twice and neither one is for Drive!

I have to say overall it looks like the HFPA have made more sensible decisions than normal. Perhaps they were worried about another backlash like last year with The Tourist and that Christina Aguilera movie getting Best Picture noms.

 

[LolaSvelt]

You could say that. Or you could say that this year is arguably stronger than last year. Even the Comedy categories, which are usually drenched in fillers, are fantastic. Midnight in Paris (and Owen Wilson!), the Carnage ladies, Charlize Theron the success of Bridesmaids, Brendan Gleeson, 50/50 (and Joseph Gordon-Levitt!) and of course the big contender, The Artist.

By the way, I just realised that Young Adult was snubbed in favour of My Week with Marilyn.

 

[Chaky]

Anyway, Extremely Loud and Incredibly close is DEAD! If there's one lesson we learned from the Globes, that is it.

Poor Elizabeth Olsen. I was really hoping she'd get nominated here which would keep her hopes alive. Alas, they went with Mara instead. Gary Oldman is in the same boat, unless BAFTA go crazy for him/his film. Can't believe Leo will be getting a nomination for that critically panned mass of a film. Ugh.

I think BAFTA will go crazy for Gary Oldman. Tinker Tailor was released in the UK about three months ago to rave reviews and it did pretty decent box office for a film of that type. It's full of very well respected British character actors; it's the sort of thing that could clean up.

I don't know if people agree with this but I'm not sure how much we can read into the noms so far when films like Dragon Tattoo and EL&IC aren't yet on general release. The critics will probably have seen them. And I'm sure the Academy has held screenings. But I'd expect most voters in guilds like SAG haven't seen them yet.

I may as well say that someone very close to me is a BAFTA voter so we get screeners in the post at this time of year. Extremely Loud only arrived yesterday. No Dragon Tattoo here yet. A lot of people who vote for these are working full-time and have very little spare time to watch a movie at home, let alone go to the cinema.

Shocked to see that McCarthy was left out. A month ago, I would've said that if she's getting nominated anywhere, it would be at the Globes. But no, she made it at BFCA AND SAG, but is a no show here.

This surprised me a little too. But the Globes don't have separate Drama and Comedy categories for supporting actors. Drama usually wins out when there's a fight for five spots I think.

 

[loladonna]

I'm curious about the average age of the Academy voter. I get the sense they are ancient what with their reluctance to reward more daring films and the continued nominations of stalwart actors for predictable performances in movies that aren't particularly groundbreaking.

As for Olsen, I think it is just too soon for her and the competition in her category is too fierce. Whatever happened to Felicity Jones's buzz for Like Crazy? Both she and Elizabeth did a crazy amount of promotion for their small films to come up so empty handed.

 

[Chaky]

By the way, I just realised that Young Adult was snubbed in favour of My Week with Marilyn.

Is My Week With Marilyn really a comedy or musical? Or is that the Globes struggling to fit everything into their ten slots?

 

[loladonna]

It just occurred to me that if they wanted, the Academy could make the Oscar voting scientific. They could hold official screenings of films throughout the year as they come out where members sign in then rate the movies electronically on all categories (direction, acting, score..etc) after viewing. Results could be stored for tabulation at years end and those films/actors/directors with the highest total marks would land nominations. This would even the playing field for movies that come out earlier in the year. It would also mean voters who actually bother to watch all the films wouldn't be cramming viewing in during December. Members could be required to see a certain number of films from every category throughout the year in order to have their votes count. Those who can't be bothered to actually watch the films would have their membership in the Academy revoked.

I don't know if that sort of system would work logistically but I think it would be better than the arbitrary system in place now where people get votes based on name recognition and past work instead of what they do in the film that is actually nominated.